Over the past months the conservative-nationalist ruling camp was set to win a third term in power. Facing a divided opposition led by Donald Tusk and promising voters further expansionary social policies, Jaroslaw Kaczynski was hoping for another outright majority or a coalition with the right-wing Konfederacja which rose in polls over the summer. But as voters have returned from the holidays in September, things have changed.

Law and Justice is still leading the polls with the Civic Coalition trailing behind, but the lineup of parties set to enter parliament and the potential distribution of seats based on poll averages now points to both possible outcomes: a slim governing majority led by either Law and Justice (with Konfederacja) or the Civic Coalition (with Poland 2050 and the Left). Which means the election result will be decided on the final campaign stretch. 

Things to keep in mind: 

• Results will be very close. With so much at stake parties will try to mobilize voters to the last minute. As results will be close, recounts might be requested before the Supreme Court rules on the validity of the vote. Percentage results might translate into different seat distributions, depending on the number of parties which finally make it into parliament.  

• Protracted government formation. With close results, different coalition options might be mathematically possible, making the political process more complicated – especially as the president Andrzej Duda, a close ally of Mr. Kaczynski, will play a key role in it. Government formation in both scenarios will take time and might be questioned on constitutional grounds as democratic culture and standards will clash with party interests.

• Messy power transition. If Law and Justice is unable to secure a majority and the opposition forms a government, Poland will enter a potentially difficult power transition. The Civic Coalition has promised to immediately launch legal cases against leading politicians from Law and Justice, to purge courts, ministries and state-owned enterprises of party loyalists. The president from Law and Justice will remain in office until 2025. 

• Complex domestic challenges. If the current coalition remains in power, Mr. Kaczynski has promised more expansionary policies and a final overhaul of the judiciary, which implies removing independent judges. If the opposition comes to power, it will be preoccupied with reinstating rule of law and regaining control over state institutions – before it can focus on European issues, international affairs or market sentiment.
  

To learn more about the political outlook for Poland - contact me directly.

Things to keep an eye on:

• the March of a Million Hearts - a mass rally organized by Mr. Tusk in Warsaw on 1 October could mobilize undecided voters in favour of the opposition;

• the visa-for-cash scandal - new developments could demobilize Mr. Kaczynski’s supporters. Not his hardline base but people on whom he relies to win elections.

Copyright: Wawrzyniec Smoczyński 2023